How to start a cinema

14 Appendix 3: Sample Risk Assessment

Probability (1 – 5) Time Impact (1 – 5) Cost Impact (1 – 5) Risk Rating (1 – 25) Time or Cost Sensitive Contingency Action
Funding Items:
Delay on behalf of ACE providing funding 3 5 4 15 Time Liaise with ACE and other key funders
Inability of Cinema City to obtain Partnership funding 3 5 4 15 Time Prepare contingency fundraising strategy
Third Parties:
Inability to agree site purchase terms 2 1 4 8 Cost Liaise with developer and City Planner. Maintain back-up option 3B
Lack of regeneration of surrounding area 3 1 4 12 Cost Produce audience development contingency strategy
Statutory Requirements:
Inability to obtain Listed Building Consent 3 5 3 15 Time Consultation with appropiate authorities
Inability to obtain other Planning Consents 3 5 2 15 Time Consultation with appropiate authorities
Delays with any potential Section 106 Agreements 2 4 4 8 Both Liaise with developer and City Planning
Changes in legislation 2 4 4 8 Both Maintain contingency fund
Site Issues:
Unforeseen ground conditions 3 2 3 9 Cost Maintain contingency fund
Archaeological investigations more extensive than anticipated 2 4 3 8 Time Maintain contingency fund
Budgets:
Budget estimate for building works incorrect 3 1 4 12 Cost Market test estimates
Budget estimate for equipment incorrect 2 1 4 8 Cost Market test estimates
Assessment of inflation incorrect 3 1 5 15 Cost Maintain contingency fund
Inability to recover the majority of VAT 2 1 5 10 Cost Maintain contingency fund
Project Organisation:
Changes to brief 4 4 4 16 Both Consult with key stakeholders
Poor communication between team members 2 3 3 6 Both Produce communication strategy
Supply problems 2 4 3 8 Time Maintain back-up suppliers
Demand Issues:
Reluctance from distributors to offer “First Runs” 3 2 3 9 Cost Liaise with distributors
Fall off in cinema demand from public 2 1 3 6 Cost Monitor local and national trends
Other Issues:
Ability to achieve stabilised state 3 1 3 9 Cost Liaise with key funders

Categories are as follows:-

Probability:

  1. Very low
  2. Low
  3. Medium
  4. High
  5. Certain

Risk Rating:

  • By multiplying the probability (between 1 – 5) with the worst impact (between 1 – 5) we arrive at a risk rating of between 1 – 25. This will highlight to the team those risks with the highest rating.

Impact:

  1. Negligible
  2. Quite Serious
  3. Serious
  4. Major
  5. Show Stopper

Time:

  • 0 – 2 weeks
  • 2 – 4 weeks
  • 4 – 8 weeks
  • 8 – 16 weeks
  • 16 weeks+

Cost:

  • £0 – £10k
  • £10k – £25k
  • £25k – £100k
  • £100k – £250k
  • £250k+

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